I'm being barraged with emails and phone calls from the Obama campaigning asking for get-out-the-vote help this afternoon, saying that they have indications the race here in MN is tighter than they expected.
Time will tell, but I wonder if this is more about the MN Senate seat than about Obama.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
My last day predictions
Could be better for Obama than this, but it won't be worse (from RCP's create-your-own-map thing-a-ma-jig):
Monday, November 03, 2008
Steph would have posted this
in the interest of "fairness" since she posted the first report*, but I beat her to it:
ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- A report has cleared Gov. Sarah Palin of ethics violations in the firing of her public safety commissioner.
The report, released Monday, said: "There is no probable cause to believe that the governor, or any other state official, violated the Alaska Executive Ethics Act in connection with these matters."*Semi-correction: I can't find it, but I know Steph raised it somewhere. Unless she didn't.
Geraghty says Barry, unless PA goes red
"Going down the list, state by state, I come up with a 286-252 electoral vote victory for Obama. If Pennsylvania flips to red, it would actually be a 273-265 McCain victory."
More science shows Ayers wrote Barry's book
When, however, Yavelow compared Obama’s Dreams with Bill Ayers’ memoir, Fugitive Days, he found the similarity of the two books “striking.” He then quickly corrects himself: “’Striking’ is an understatement for the relationship FictionFixer uncovered between Fugitive Days and Dreams From My Father.”
For instance, Dreams averages 17.61 words and 26.48 syllables for non-dialogue sentences. Fugitive Days averages 17.62 words and 26.27 syllables.
Another example is what Yavelow calls “attributions”—e.g., he “asked,” she “said,” they “wondered.” Some authors use as few as three. Many use fewer than twenty. Dreams, however, uses 36; Fugitive Days 34, and with only four exceptions—three of these used only once—the two books use the very same attributions.[Ace]
Friends on the Radio
Years ago a gal from my high school on whom I had a huge crush (way above my pay grade in high school) and with whom I was pretty good friends used to be the "Black Thunder" traffic reporter for a radio station in Dallas flying around in that station's black helicopter. That was pretty cool at the time though she was destined for much greater things.
Recently, a fellow member of my Lions Club and friend has begun doing the news on the half hour for Austin's biggest AM radio station KLBJ. She has a great voice and is perfect for this job. Still, for some reason, rather than it being "cool," I'm somewhat disturbed every time I hear her on the air. I have no idea why I feel that way.
Recently, a fellow member of my Lions Club and friend has begun doing the news on the half hour for Austin's biggest AM radio station KLBJ. She has a great voice and is perfect for this job. Still, for some reason, rather than it being "cool," I'm somewhat disturbed every time I hear her on the air. I have no idea why I feel that way.
Re: Beldar's being the better man...
As I mentioned last week, I'd have rather lost to OSU than TT. Coach Leach is just too weird and the TT fans too obnoxious. Having said that, I reiterate that TT just plain beat us and the game shouldn't have been as close as it ended up. I was heartened by the effort in the second half and there does not appear to be any giving up in these kids.
After the Mizzou game, I started to drink the Kool-Aid but the closeness of the OSU game brought me back to reality. I'd have said as little as two and as many as four losses at the season's start with this year being one to teach and provide experience for young running backs and defensive secondary. With this defense and the loss of our only legitimate tight end, this season has been a bubble waiting to burst.
At No. 4, we're still likely to play in a BCS bowl if we avoid another loss.
After the Mizzou game, I started to drink the Kool-Aid but the closeness of the OSU game brought me back to reality. I'd have said as little as two and as many as four losses at the season's start with this year being one to teach and provide experience for young running backs and defensive secondary. With this defense and the loss of our only legitimate tight end, this season has been a bubble waiting to burst.
At No. 4, we're still likely to play in a BCS bowl if we avoid another loss.
Oh for Pete's sake
On the stinking birth certificate. I'm not looking for the other stuff. (Re did he really go to Columbia: You're thinking Harvard admitted him without obtaining a certified transcript from Columbia?! Even my third rate law school needed a certified transcript from my college.)
Update: More on the birth certificate nonsense.
Update: More on the birth certificate nonsense.
What's with Palin's medical records?
They were promised, but haven't yet been provided. Strikes me as odd.
It’s getting a little scarier around here.
Lawyer in my section just got the ax.
Then I get a robo-email in which the first two sentences read:
As you are no doubt aware, with the current fluctuations in the economy, the legal market is beginning to slow quite dramatically. Especially hard hit are attorneys working in the securities and real estate sectors.
Then I get a robo-email in which the first two sentences read:
As you are no doubt aware, with the current fluctuations in the economy, the legal market is beginning to slow quite dramatically. Especially hard hit are attorneys working in the securities and real estate sectors.
Ipod bleg
I'm unplugging from talk radio after Tuesday to listen to books and other things on my commute. Anyone up on Ipods and similar devices?
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Even if Ayers didn't write Barry's book:
And from where I’m sitting, all of these charges, brought about by another
explanation for the similarities in the Ayers and Obama tomes, are every bit as
revealing: Obama may not have had his book ghostwritten. But it is possible, if
the science is to be believed, that Obama had so internalized Ayers’ style — and
was so taken by his method of argumentation and the force of his ideology — that
he wrote a derivative work that, in a number of passages, bordered on
plagiaristic.
Hardly what one would expect from someone who didn’t know of
Ayers’ past, and who considered him “just some guy from the neighborhood.”
Jeff G. asks a question
"So answer me this, somebody: Did Barack Obama really attend Columbia? And if so, where’s the proof?"
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Scared
I know that no one's defending Palin on her stunning amendment views, but I just can't get over my horror, so I'll offer more on on the topic. This is A. Serwer writing at Tapped who says it better than I can:
"If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations," Palin told host Chris Plante, "then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media."
This understanding of the First Amendment, not as freedom of speech, but as freedom of speech limited to me and those who share my political views, coupled with a freedom from criticism of those views, is the most frightening interpretation of the Constitution I've ever heard in my life. Those "attacks" from the MSM are protected under the Constitution, Palin's "right" to be "free" from such "attacks" (read: critical coverage) is most definitely not.
But this bizarre interpretation is at the core of the right's complaints about unfavorable media coverage. Rush Limbaugh typically invokes this "understanding" of the First Amendment when criticizing groups like Media Matters, accusing them of being "Stalinist" for recording his nationally broadcast programming and calling him out on inaccuracies or flagrant bigotries. In Limbaugh and Palin's minds, the First Amendment protects not only their speech but shields any criticism of said speech.
And as Ben Smith points out, the First Amendment exists to protect people from government, not the other way around, which is what makes Palin's interpretation of the Constitution so deeply alarming.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Worse comes to worst - 4 votes
I was intrigued to read a blogger we know and admire write "worse/worse." Did anyone get an answer?
Update from Stephanie: Apparently, there's more than one acceptable version:
Update from Stephanie: Apparently, there's more than one acceptable version:
Posted without comment
AP-Yahoo! News poll, “Changeable voters … 1 in 7 voters still persuadable,” By[Corner/Lowry]
AP’s Alan Fram: “a stubborn wedge of people, … somehow, are still making up their minds about who should be
president. One in seven, or 14 percent, can't decide or back a candidate but
might switch, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll of likely voters
released Friday. Who are they? They look a lot like the voters who've already
locked onto a candidate, though they're more likely to be white and less likely
to be liberal. And they disproportionately backed Hillary Rodham Clinton's
failed run for the Democratic nomination.”
Well, a little comment. "Told you."
Ok, I've voted
What a weird town this is. I had at least ten slots in which Democrats were unopposed.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Now I don't have to drink to vote next Tuesday....
Just heard Senator McCain on Hugh Hewitt. He acknowledged his differences (humility) with HH and, therefore, the base (me, more base than HH). I know, shoring up one's base at this late hour is a sign of weakness, but maybe not this time.
More Scooter's VDH lovefest
Some nice thoughts heading toward the weekend:
Fourth, the war in Iraq is no longer even a war in a traditional sense…. The cost of deploying American troops in Iraq is nearing the expense to station them elsewhere abroad. As Iraqis continue to take over additional provinces, the American presence will shrink further.
There are also long-term reasons to believe the United States will better weather the current storm. We are a transparent society that blares out problems, affixes blame, and then fights publicly over solutions. Japan’s real estate meltdown of the 1990s took years to correct, given the emphasis on secrecy and shame within Japanese financial circles.
…
American banks are subject to uniform national policy and are forced to act in concert. In contrast, British, French, and German lending institutions are often unwilling to bail out other countries, and compete with each other to attract scarce capital in times of crisis.The United States military remains far stronger — and more battle-hardened — than the rest of the world’s armed forces combined. Rogue nations and terrorists try to take advantage of economic uncertainty, but America remains the best-defended democracy in the world.
The current financial crisis has startled America from a hypnotic trance of self-indulgence and irresponsibility. But as we return to American fundamentals, we may discover that our political, social, and economic system — despite all the current election-cycle hysteria — is still by far the most resilient in the world.
Fourth, the war in Iraq is no longer even a war in a traditional sense…. The cost of deploying American troops in Iraq is nearing the expense to station them elsewhere abroad. As Iraqis continue to take over additional provinces, the American presence will shrink further.
There are also long-term reasons to believe the United States will better weather the current storm. We are a transparent society that blares out problems, affixes blame, and then fights publicly over solutions. Japan’s real estate meltdown of the 1990s took years to correct, given the emphasis on secrecy and shame within Japanese financial circles.
…
American banks are subject to uniform national policy and are forced to act in concert. In contrast, British, French, and German lending institutions are often unwilling to bail out other countries, and compete with each other to attract scarce capital in times of crisis.The United States military remains far stronger — and more battle-hardened — than the rest of the world’s armed forces combined. Rogue nations and terrorists try to take advantage of economic uncertainty, but America remains the best-defended democracy in the world.
The current financial crisis has startled America from a hypnotic trance of self-indulgence and irresponsibility. But as we return to American fundamentals, we may discover that our political, social, and economic system — despite all the current election-cycle hysteria — is still by far the most resilient in the world.
Campaign Spending
I haven’t followed this subject with much interest so I’ll side with Michael on the substance but trust Stephanie that Senator Obama left himself an out on the issue. I’ve also got no problem with Senator Obama having raised so much money so long as done properly (another subject). Having said that, I wonder if VDH is right about future campaigns. I don’t think the issue is dead. If it comes up again in four or eight years and the financial shoe is on the other foot, the media will still howl:
The $600 million that Obama amassed and abject rejection of public campaign financing. There are three problems: (1) the breaking of one’s word; (2) the creation of such a vast treasure chest; (3) and the complete destruction of the principle of public financing. Never again, will one on the Left make the credible argument either that there is a poisonous nexus between big money and big politics, or that the government should step in to ensure that special interests do not exercise an inordinate influence. So Obama essentially destroyed the idea of public campaign financing of national elections. It’s dead, kaput—over with for good. And the media simply skipped that latter story. (Again, imagine the media’s reaction should McCain have flipped on the issue, rejected public financing, raised a $600 million war-chest, outspent Obama 4-1, and now was airing 30-minute infomercials unanswered by the poorer, and public financed Obama.)
The $600 million that Obama amassed and abject rejection of public campaign financing. There are three problems: (1) the breaking of one’s word; (2) the creation of such a vast treasure chest; (3) and the complete destruction of the principle of public financing. Never again, will one on the Left make the credible argument either that there is a poisonous nexus between big money and big politics, or that the government should step in to ensure that special interests do not exercise an inordinate influence. So Obama essentially destroyed the idea of public campaign financing of national elections. It’s dead, kaput—over with for good. And the media simply skipped that latter story. (Again, imagine the media’s reaction should McCain have flipped on the issue, rejected public financing, raised a $600 million war-chest, outspent Obama 4-1, and now was airing 30-minute infomercials unanswered by the poorer, and public financed Obama.)
American Breadlines and the Big Three
I didn’t watch the infomercial but have had this thought a lot lately though less about Senator Obama and more about some of the things coming from others on the left. Whatever our problems are right now, America is not one big breadline. To be fair, all politicians exploit these anecdotal cases but I think Obama's special really pushed the boundaries of my bile duct here.
Just as one particular example, I was struck by the guy at the Ford plant; it noted that his father and grandfather had worked at Ford and retired with full benefits. And now he's only paid to work every other week. Is he suffering currently because of the state of the economy and George Bush's economic policies, or because his dad and grandad's union extracted exorbitant benefits and retirement packages that mean Ford is now saddled with crushing financial obligations?
I've heard it said that with GM, at least, something like $1000-$2000 of each vehicles price goes to the benefits of GM retirees. As for the "extraction" of "exhorbitant benefits" by the unions, the big three are as equally to blame. The writing has been on that wall for much longer that the subprime grafitti.
From Mark Hemingway at the Corner:
Just as one particular example, I was struck by the guy at the Ford plant; it noted that his father and grandfather had worked at Ford and retired with full benefits. And now he's only paid to work every other week. Is he suffering currently because of the state of the economy and George Bush's economic policies, or because his dad and grandad's union extracted exorbitant benefits and retirement packages that mean Ford is now saddled with crushing financial obligations?
I've heard it said that with GM, at least, something like $1000-$2000 of each vehicles price goes to the benefits of GM retirees. As for the "extraction" of "exhorbitant benefits" by the unions, the big three are as equally to blame. The writing has been on that wall for much longer that the subprime grafitti.
More right-wing talking points
"There has been a complete and utter smear job of our fellow citizen, Sarah Palin, who is only trying to serve her country.”
Oh wait a minute. No it's not. [Allah]
Oh wait a minute. No it's not. [Allah]
Unmarked small bills
"The Obama-Biden campaign might just as well have set up dumpsters all over the world into which illegal donors could dump shopping bags full of cash donations made in unmarked small bills."
Bill Dyer is on the case.
Bill Dyer is on the case.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
This is what I've been saying and why the polls are undercounting McCain
by a margin that means McCain wins. If you have any interest at all on why I thought that McCain would win (but became convinced when I saw the Tipp poll for October 21), read the whole thing:
"The Bradley Effect is merely a subset of the 'socially desirable answer' phenomenon. People tend to tell pollsters the socially desirable answer."
Correction: Having read more carefully, let me amend: I don't know anything about the latter stuff in that post. My knee-jerk agreement was with the first few paragraphs. Call it Bradley or something else, the polls don't reflect what's going to happen when the curtain closes and Joe voter needs to make a decision about the fate of his country.
"The Bradley Effect is merely a subset of the 'socially desirable answer' phenomenon. People tend to tell pollsters the socially desirable answer."
Correction: Having read more carefully, let me amend: I don't know anything about the latter stuff in that post. My knee-jerk agreement was with the first few paragraphs. Call it Bradley or something else, the polls don't reflect what's going to happen when the curtain closes and Joe voter needs to make a decision about the fate of his country.
What the LA Times doesn't want you to see
"Saw a clip from the tape. Reason we can't release it is because statements Obama said to rile audience up during toast. He congratulates Khalidi for his work saying 'Israel has no God-given right to occupy Palestine' plus there's been 'genocide against the Palestinian people by Israelis.'"
If this description is true, would that bother anyone? [Ace]
If this description is true, would that bother anyone? [Ace]
Khalidi
Just in case anyone's worried about Obama having connections to the PLO via Rashid Khalidi, you should know that "McCain distributed several hundred thousand dollars to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies while he chaired the International Republican Institute." Tapped, citing Seth Colter Walls at HuffPo.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Senate makeup by party
Election night
If Obama wins Ohio and Virginia (and holds Pennsylvania and the other usual suspects), then he doesn't need Colorado or New Mexico. Essentially, election night drama will be over when Ohio and Virginia are called, if they go to Obama. Here's how that electoral map would look, giving all the other states to McCain (and noting that this map is far more favorable to McCain that current polling suggests):
Created using the RCP create-your-own-map thingee.
Created using the RCP create-your-own-map thingee.
RCP Projections in 2004
This shows how closely the RCP polling averages predicted results in the 2004 Presidential election:
Hawaii was bad because there was little polling and it stopped mid-October. In the rest of these states, the results matched the predictions within 4.5%, with only three states being more than 3% off. (Note, though, that I've used actual results rounded to the nearest full percent, while the predictions are rounded to the tenth. So the differences may be off by up to almost one percent. The orange ones indicate where the polls predicted the wrong guy as winner.)
Looking at these results reminds me how we Democrats thought, in 2004, that Bush and Republicans would surely understand that he hadn't been given a mandate. Out of about 46,000,000 votes in these states, Kerry lost by just 270,000 votes (about 1/2 of one percent).
Hawaii was bad because there was little polling and it stopped mid-October. In the rest of these states, the results matched the predictions within 4.5%, with only three states being more than 3% off. (Note, though, that I've used actual results rounded to the nearest full percent, while the predictions are rounded to the tenth. So the differences may be off by up to almost one percent. The orange ones indicate where the polls predicted the wrong guy as winner.)
Looking at these results reminds me how we Democrats thought, in 2004, that Bush and Republicans would surely understand that he hadn't been given a mandate. Out of about 46,000,000 votes in these states, Kerry lost by just 270,000 votes (about 1/2 of one percent).
Monday, October 27, 2008
Book club book picks for 08-09
My book club had determined that we'd read only award-winners this year. Here's what we've picked:
Nov: The War of Don Emmanuel's Nether Parts, Louis de Bernieres
Dec: One of Ours, Willa Cather
Jan: All the King's Men, Robert Penn Warren
Feb: The Old Man and the Sea, Ernest Hemingway
March: Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell, Susanna Clarke
April: Watership Down, Richard Adams
June: The Human Stain, Philip Roth
June: The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay, Michael Chabon
July: Snow Falling on Cedars, David Guterson
August: To Kill a Mockingbird, Harper Lee
Sept: The Echo Maker, Richard Powers
I've read 75 pages of Kavalier & Clay, just enough to see that I liked it, so I stopped reading and pitched it and will read it with the book club.
Nov: The War of Don Emmanuel's Nether Parts, Louis de Bernieres
Dec: One of Ours, Willa Cather
Jan: All the King's Men, Robert Penn Warren
Feb: The Old Man and the Sea, Ernest Hemingway
March: Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell, Susanna Clarke
April: Watership Down, Richard Adams
June: The Human Stain, Philip Roth
June: The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay, Michael Chabon
July: Snow Falling on Cedars, David Guterson
August: To Kill a Mockingbird, Harper Lee
Sept: The Echo Maker, Richard Powers
I've read 75 pages of Kavalier & Clay, just enough to see that I liked it, so I stopped reading and pitched it and will read it with the book club.
Ezra on McCain's campaign against liberalism
Here.
But conservatives may end up ruing this descent into ideological war. Two months ago, it wasn't exactly clear what an Obama win would "mean." But as McCain has worked to transform this election into a referendum on liberalism, it's increasingly becoming...a referendum on liberalism.
[skip]
If Obama wins, it's going to be very easy for folks to claim that the old conservative pressure points of taxes and government have dulled, and we're entering an era in which economic instability and widening inequality necessitate a more assertive role for progressively-conceived governance. Indeed, one of my long-running criticisms of the Obama campaign was that they weren't campaigning so as to build an ideological mandate. John McCain, helpfully, has solved that problem. My hunch is conservatives will not end up thanking him.
Tax plan
Obama's tax plan here:
Comparison:
Middle class families will see their taxes cut – and no family making less than $250,000 will see their taxes increase. The typical middle class family will receive well over $1,000 in tax relief under the Obama plan, and will pay tax rates that are 20% lower than they faced under President Reagan. According to the Tax Policy Center, the Obama plan provides three times as much tax relief for middle class families as the McCain plan.
Families making more than $250,000 will pay either the same or lower tax rates than they paid in the 1990s. Obama will ask the wealthiest 2% of families to give back a portion of the tax cuts they have received over the past eight years to ensure we are restoring fairness and returning to fiscal responsibility. But no family will pay higher tax rates than they would have paid in the 1990s. In fact, dividend rates would be 39 percent lower than what President Bush proposed in his 2001 tax cut.
Obama’s plan will cut taxes overall, reducing revenues to below the levels that prevailed under Ronald Reagan (less than 18.2 percent of GDP). The Obama tax plan is a net tax cut – his tax relief for middle class families is larger than the revenue raised by his tax changes for families over $250,000. Coupled with his commitment to cut unnecessary spending, Obama will pay for this tax relief while bringing down the budget deficit.
Comparison:
Tax Cuts to 95% of Working Americans
Does allowing the ‘01 and ‘03 tax cuts to expire count as raising taxes? Or, is that just a return to something that was more fair and just? Or, would a President Obama only allow the pre-‘01, ‘03 levels to return for the top 5% of earners?
As an observer from the right, Senator Obama seems to be in “read my lips” territory. Unfortunately from my perspective, I don’t think he would be held to account the Bush père was because I don’t think the issue is that important to the left.
As an observer from the right, Senator Obama seems to be in “read my lips” territory. Unfortunately from my perspective, I don’t think he would be held to account the Bush père was because I don’t think the issue is that important to the left.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Perspective: credit default swaps
Time from March 2008 gives perspective on the ginormousnous of the credit default swap market: The CDS market exploded over the past decade to more than 45 trillion in mid-2007, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This is roughly twice the size of the U.S. stock market (which is valued at about $22 trillion and falling) and far exceeds the $7.1 trillion mortgage market and $4.4 trillion U.S. treasuries market, notes Harvey Miller, senior partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges. "It could be another — I hate to use the expression — nail in the coffin," said Miller, when referring to how this troubled CDS market could impact the country's credit crisis.
Update: for further perspective, the combined world GDP is 65 trillion.
Update: for further perspective, the combined world GDP is 65 trillion.
Charles Fried
Do any Republicans care what Charles Fried thinks? (I'm not familiar with him so don't know whether he's a big deal, but apparently he has been involved with McCain's campaign.) He has voted for Obama. The choice of Sarah Palin did the trick for him.
Well, that's different
Speaking of bombers (more specifically, speaking of terrorists and non-terrorists while wearing a very short skirt that would be inappropriate in most work places):
Taking up yoga
Should be one of the choices if your candidate loses. That's what I did the day after the 2004 election.
I would think that an honest answer to this, the most important question of this election, might clarify the thinking of an Undecided:
Who do you want answering that phone at 3 a.m.? A man who's been cramming on these issues for the last year, who's never had to make an executive decision affecting so much as a city, let alone the world? A foreign policy novice instinctively inclined to the flabbiest, most vaporous multilateralism (e.g., the Berlin Wall came down because of "a world that stands as one"), and who refers to the most deliberate act of war since Pearl Harbor as "the tragedy of 9/11," a term more appropriate for a bus accident?
Or do you want a man who is the most prepared, most knowledgeable, most serious foreign policy thinker in the United States Senate? A man who not only has the best instincts, but has the honor and the courage to, yes, put country first, as when he carried the lonely fight for the surge that turned Iraq from catastrophic defeat into achievable strategic victory?
Or do you want a man who is the most prepared, most knowledgeable, most serious foreign policy thinker in the United States Senate? A man who not only has the best instincts, but has the honor and the courage to, yes, put country first, as when he carried the lonely fight for the surge that turned Iraq from catastrophic defeat into achievable strategic victory?
I can hear Barry now . . .
"No, no, no. I said 'get in' their faces, not 'carve up' their faces. Sheesh."
TIPP toppiest ever
I've been calling them "Undecideds" but I notice that TIPP lists them as "Not Sure." I thought "undecided" was the traditional category for someone who wasn't committed one way or the other but maybe I'm wrong. I'm not smart enough to dig into "cross-tabs" and all that other stuff poll-nuts do; hell, I don't even look at the questions. But I wonder if there is a difference among polls or the particluar questions asked that would account for the large number of "Not Sures" in the TIPP poll compared to the smaller number of "Undecideds" in other polls.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Most accurate pollster in 2004:
McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
Undecideds are 11.6%.
TIPP top. Not.
Michael's TIPP poll finds McCain ahead of Obama amongst 18-24 year olds by 74-22. Maybe this poll has a flaw or two.
James Cromwell
Who woulda remembered that James Cromwell of Babe (Farmer Hoggett) and Star Trek (Dr. Zefram Cochrane) was Stretch Cunningham in Lear’s All in the Family?
Re: Heller
The article Stephanie cited contained this gem:
The New Republic in August, wrote that Heller’s failure to allow the political process to work out varying approaches to gun control that were suited to local conditions "was the mistake that the Supreme Court made when it nationalized abortion rights in Roe v. Wade."
Heller specifically stated that, like most rights, there are numerous restrictions that the political process may place on guns. After a litany of examples, the court went on to footnote: We identify these presumptively lawful regulatory measures as examples; our list does not purport to be exhaustive. (FN 26 on p. 55) Heller merely stated that the DC ban went too far.
[Update: Stephanie linked to make a different point.]
The New Republic in August, wrote that Heller’s failure to allow the political process to work out varying approaches to gun control that were suited to local conditions "was the mistake that the Supreme Court made when it nationalized abortion rights in Roe v. Wade."
Heller specifically stated that, like most rights, there are numerous restrictions that the political process may place on guns. After a litany of examples, the court went on to footnote: We identify these presumptively lawful regulatory measures as examples; our list does not purport to be exhaustive. (FN 26 on p. 55) Heller merely stated that the DC ban went too far.
[Update: Stephanie linked to make a different point.]
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Robber Barons v. Moral Busybodies
One of Jonah Goldberg’s readers reminds me of one of my favorite quotes:
And then there's this from C.S. Lewis, via a reader:
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
And then there's this from C.S. Lewis, via a reader:
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
Bingaman on the Fairness Doctrine
I take Senator Obama at his word but I do think he'll face real pressure to re-institute. The Bingaman audio here.
I for one do not want to go back to listening to "Garden Line" five afternoons a week. Speaking of Garden Line, would all the organic gardening shows have to give equal time to those who want to use artificial chemicals?
I for one do not want to go back to listening to "Garden Line" five afternoons a week. Speaking of Garden Line, would all the organic gardening shows have to give equal time to those who want to use artificial chemicals?
Barry's polling shows PA a toss-up??
"But much buzz today surrounds the apparently inadvertent leak of an internal poll by Barack Obama's campaign in Pennsylvania that supposedly showed the Democrat leading there by only 2 percentage points -- a much-slimmer margin than independent surveys have recorded for him and one that would make the race for the state a tossup.
An e-mail from a local Obama aide expressing concern about the internal poll's findings ended up in the queue of a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. He, in turn, interviewed Sean Smith, the Obama communications director for Pennsylvania.
Their chat can be heard here; as the host notes after it's over, Smith doesn't dispute that the campaign's own polling gauged Pennsylvania a tossup." [Redstate]
An e-mail from a local Obama aide expressing concern about the internal poll's findings ended up in the queue of a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. He, in turn, interviewed Sean Smith, the Obama communications director for Pennsylvania.
Their chat can be heard here; as the host notes after it's over, Smith doesn't dispute that the campaign's own polling gauged Pennsylvania a tossup." [Redstate]
Corporate Welfare Revolt
As a corporate welfare hater, you’ll probably be surprised to hear me support an Austin, Texas tax break for Simon Properties (a mega-property owner based in Indianapolis). Why is this group so special? They are not and I opposed the tax break initially.
But now Proposition 2 is on the ballot in two weeks which essentially says, “We gave you the tax break, you built your tony, high-brow shopping area (called the Domain), got ‘er all leased up making representations to your tenants about how much their tax escrow payments will be…and now we’re going to yank the promised tax break.”
It is called Prop 2 here in Austin. What a stinker. Keep Austin's Word.
But now Proposition 2 is on the ballot in two weeks which essentially says, “We gave you the tax break, you built your tony, high-brow shopping area (called the Domain), got ‘er all leased up making representations to your tenants about how much their tax escrow payments will be…and now we’re going to yank the promised tax break.”
It is called Prop 2 here in Austin. What a stinker. Keep Austin's Word.
Most accurate pollster in 2004*
shows Mac behind by 3.7 (down from 6) with 12.3% undecided. That, my friends, is victory. [Gateway Pundit]
* Final Certified Results Reveal TIPP as the Most Accurate Pollster of Election 2004An analysis of the presidential election's final certified results shows that TIPP's daily tracking polls proved to be the most accurate in terms of predicting the winner and his margin of victory.
Among the four national daily tracking polls, TIPP came closest to projecting Bush's actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
TIPP also outperformed a field of 11 other national, non-tracking pre-election polls, coming within just four-tenths of a percentage point to predicting Bush’s actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
* Final Certified Results Reveal TIPP as the Most Accurate Pollster of Election 2004An analysis of the presidential election's final certified results shows that TIPP's daily tracking polls proved to be the most accurate in terms of predicting the winner and his margin of victory.
Among the four national daily tracking polls, TIPP came closest to projecting Bush's actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
TIPP also outperformed a field of 11 other national, non-tracking pre-election polls, coming within just four-tenths of a percentage point to predicting Bush’s actual margin of victory (2.1% projected vs. 2.5% actual).
Re: Dividing and conquering
On reaching out to fiscal conservatives, Steyn posts:
Or, if you like, they're [folks like Chris Buckley] "hoping" he'll "change", and break with what passes for his record - the most liberal in the Senate. Across the pond, my old pal Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, is also full of "hope":
He needs to stick up more vigorously for free trade, and we must hope that any ill-considered new taxes will be thwarted by Congress.
Ah, right. I think Barney Frank answered that one:
I think at this point, there needs to be a focus on an immediate increase in spending and I think this is a time when deficit fear has to take a second seat. I do think this is a time for a kind of very important dose of Keynesianism. I believe later on there should be tax increases. Speaking personally, I think there are a lot of very rich people out there whom we can tax at a point down the road and recover some of this money.
I could, maybe, stomach some higher taxes if they were dedicated to deficit decreases but not more spending for which my own president far too responsible for almost eight years.
Or, if you like, they're [folks like Chris Buckley] "hoping" he'll "change", and break with what passes for his record - the most liberal in the Senate. Across the pond, my old pal Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, is also full of "hope":
He needs to stick up more vigorously for free trade, and we must hope that any ill-considered new taxes will be thwarted by Congress.
Ah, right. I think Barney Frank answered that one:
I think at this point, there needs to be a focus on an immediate increase in spending and I think this is a time when deficit fear has to take a second seat. I do think this is a time for a kind of very important dose of Keynesianism. I believe later on there should be tax increases. Speaking personally, I think there are a lot of very rich people out there whom we can tax at a point down the road and recover some of this money.
I could, maybe, stomach some higher taxes if they were dedicated to deficit decreases but not more spending for which my own president far too responsible for almost eight years.
Why i'm undecided
I have several reasons, some specific, some general. I'll go over them:
I would say that I lean more towards Obama in relation to Iraq/Afghanistan; on his statements regarding tax cuts for companies that don't off-shore jobs; repealing tax cuts on big oil companies; gay marriage; abortion rights.
I would say that I lean more towards McCain in relation to illegal immigration; his position on lower tax rates for 401k/IRA and when you have to take out money; his position on health care; his position on social security.
On more general reasons, I think that we need someone younger, fresher, and who can work with Congress. The complaint for many years is that DC gets nothing done. Congress is going to be run by the Democrats and if anything is going to get done, it will be with Obama as President, not McCain. I am concerned about the relative inexperience of Obama, but I believe he is intelligent and will surround himself with the same. I believe he won't have "yes-people" all around him and will actually listen to opinions that differ from his. I think that he will have a harder time staying away from the more liberal Democratic leaders. which is a concern. The Pelosi's, the Frank's, the Jackson-Lee's, the Watter's of the world scare me much more than Obama.
However, the independent nature of McCain is appealing to me. I do believe that he would at least try to involve both parties to find solutions. But, in the end, how will he get anything done? The Democratic majority in Congress will hate him and not do anything he wants, thus making an already do-nothing Congress even more-so. Some Republicans will also turn on him,, since he has turned his back on them. He can wave his veto pen all he wants, but until the President gets line-item veto power, it's useless. Congress will just attach all their spending crap to military bills and he'll have to sign them. He obviously understands the military more than Obama and these days, that is an asset. I like how he is against the Bush policies regarding torture. And while I know Obama is trying to paint him as a continuation of W, and in some cases I think that is true, in others I don't. He isn't W, he isn't Cheney. He is a hot-head and I'm not convinced he'll have people around him to reign him in. I question his judgement in selecting Palin - yes, the base loves her, but please don't insult our intelligence trying to convince us she is ready or capable of being President. She isn't. Biden, whether you agree with his politics or not, is more qualified.
I think that about lays out where I'm at. I'm not sure I can reconcile all these factors by the time I vote and even if I do, the odds are very good that I will vote for neither.
Oh, I forgot the last thing. As Scooter stated, to me these are 2 undesirable choices (3 if you count Hillary). That belief is more than likely the biggest reason I haven't decided.
I would say that I lean more towards Obama in relation to Iraq/Afghanistan; on his statements regarding tax cuts for companies that don't off-shore jobs; repealing tax cuts on big oil companies; gay marriage; abortion rights.
I would say that I lean more towards McCain in relation to illegal immigration; his position on lower tax rates for 401k/IRA and when you have to take out money; his position on health care; his position on social security.
On more general reasons, I think that we need someone younger, fresher, and who can work with Congress. The complaint for many years is that DC gets nothing done. Congress is going to be run by the Democrats and if anything is going to get done, it will be with Obama as President, not McCain. I am concerned about the relative inexperience of Obama, but I believe he is intelligent and will surround himself with the same. I believe he won't have "yes-people" all around him and will actually listen to opinions that differ from his. I think that he will have a harder time staying away from the more liberal Democratic leaders. which is a concern. The Pelosi's, the Frank's, the Jackson-Lee's, the Watter's of the world scare me much more than Obama.
However, the independent nature of McCain is appealing to me. I do believe that he would at least try to involve both parties to find solutions. But, in the end, how will he get anything done? The Democratic majority in Congress will hate him and not do anything he wants, thus making an already do-nothing Congress even more-so. Some Republicans will also turn on him,, since he has turned his back on them. He can wave his veto pen all he wants, but until the President gets line-item veto power, it's useless. Congress will just attach all their spending crap to military bills and he'll have to sign them. He obviously understands the military more than Obama and these days, that is an asset. I like how he is against the Bush policies regarding torture. And while I know Obama is trying to paint him as a continuation of W, and in some cases I think that is true, in others I don't. He isn't W, he isn't Cheney. He is a hot-head and I'm not convinced he'll have people around him to reign him in. I question his judgement in selecting Palin - yes, the base loves her, but please don't insult our intelligence trying to convince us she is ready or capable of being President. She isn't. Biden, whether you agree with his politics or not, is more qualified.
I think that about lays out where I'm at. I'm not sure I can reconcile all these factors by the time I vote and even if I do, the odds are very good that I will vote for neither.
Oh, I forgot the last thing. As Scooter stated, to me these are 2 undesirable choices (3 if you count Hillary). That belief is more than likely the biggest reason I haven't decided.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Re: Medical malpractice question
Meant to post this earlier.
Only context I have is the law firm. Knowing what I know, I'd go to another clinic/firm for the second opinion.
Only context I have is the law firm. Knowing what I know, I'd go to another clinic/firm for the second opinion.
Accuracy of RCP average for Democratic Primary
I've seen that 7% number bandied about but can't find the work behind it.
Here's what I get:
Unless I've done something wrong, this tells us Obama polled on average 2.33 percent lower than he performed.
I've left out Michigan and Florida which were just too goofy to put any stock in the results. I also rounded the vote percentages for most of the states the nearest percentage, but that shouldn't matter much.
Here are RCP averages.
Update: That RCP link above doesn't show Alabama or Connecticut for some reason. But they are here and here, respectively.
Also, I revised the chart with percentages accurate to the tenth and ended up with an average error of 1.99 (i.e. Obama polled 1.99 percent lower than his results):
Here's what I get:
Unless I've done something wrong, this tells us Obama polled on average 2.33 percent lower than he performed.
I've left out Michigan and Florida which were just too goofy to put any stock in the results. I also rounded the vote percentages for most of the states the nearest percentage, but that shouldn't matter much.
Here are RCP averages.
Update: That RCP link above doesn't show Alabama or Connecticut for some reason. But they are here and here, respectively.
Also, I revised the chart with percentages accurate to the tenth and ended up with an average error of 1.99 (i.e. Obama polled 1.99 percent lower than his results):
Undecideds
I was prompted by some caller to some radio show to wonder about how there could be any undecideds left this late in the game...at least thinking undecideds.
Then I got an email this afternoon from one of the two named shareholders in my firm. He and his wife decided yesterday to vote for Senator Obama and would be sending out numerous emails about how to support the senator in the next two weeks. He emphasized this was personal and had nothing to do with the firm. The email stated I could get off this email list if I was undecided, was voting for McCain or just didn't want the clutter. I elected, rather cowardly, to just accept the clutter.
This shareholder is absolute hell to work with but is a wonderful person on a personal level. I helped him out on a real estate issue for his mother-in-law and he gave me a $500.00 driver as a reward. He screams bloody murder when he can't reach me by cell when I'm out of the office (I'm the last lawyer on the planet without one and he can pay for it if he wants me to have one).
He loathes illegal immigration as he watches his boyhood neighborhood deteriorate in N. Texas as the new inhabitants just let everything deteriorate.
He's as smart as anyone I've met.
He decided yesterday.
Then I got an email this afternoon from one of the two named shareholders in my firm. He and his wife decided yesterday to vote for Senator Obama and would be sending out numerous emails about how to support the senator in the next two weeks. He emphasized this was personal and had nothing to do with the firm. The email stated I could get off this email list if I was undecided, was voting for McCain or just didn't want the clutter. I elected, rather cowardly, to just accept the clutter.
This shareholder is absolute hell to work with but is a wonderful person on a personal level. I helped him out on a real estate issue for his mother-in-law and he gave me a $500.00 driver as a reward. He screams bloody murder when he can't reach me by cell when I'm out of the office (I'm the last lawyer on the planet without one and he can pay for it if he wants me to have one).
He loathes illegal immigration as he watches his boyhood neighborhood deteriorate in N. Texas as the new inhabitants just let everything deteriorate.
He's as smart as anyone I've met.
He decided yesterday.
"Free" or Universal Healthcare
Whatever one thinks about Universal Healthcare or any of the plans floating around out there, it should never be completely free to the consumer. I use the term consumer to mean the average American, not someone so bereft of funds that no co-pay, however small, would be affordable.
Every year I try to do at least one or two cases pro bono. At the moment I'm doing a divorce for a woman who was judged worthy by an outfit called Volunteer Legal Services. We have been trying to schedule a meeting for a while to go over the final judgment.
At first she asked that I drive to meet her in Round Rock which would have me driving 30 minutes both ways. I declined but told her I could schedule the meeting for before or after work so that she wouldn't miss any work...even offered to come in on a Saturday or Sunday.
She didn't want to do that but said we could meet at 12:30 today at my office. At 1:00 she was still a no-show. I called her at 1:05 on her cell phone and she said she was lost. I asked if we should reschedule so she wouldn't be hurt at work. "No," she said, "I told them I'm taking a long lunch."
She hadn't thought to call me to tell me she'd be late.
She said she was on MoPac (the highway on which I office) going over the big metal bridge over the lake. Well, there is no big metal bridge over the lake on MoPac. I explained she was on the wrong highway and told her how to get to MoPac and then instructed her to call the receptionist to talk her in.
She finally showed at 1:20 and we had our meeting.
While too many doctors have made me wait far too long in waiting rooms, if their patients pay nothing, they'll get the same treatment I got today.
Every year I try to do at least one or two cases pro bono. At the moment I'm doing a divorce for a woman who was judged worthy by an outfit called Volunteer Legal Services. We have been trying to schedule a meeting for a while to go over the final judgment.
At first she asked that I drive to meet her in Round Rock which would have me driving 30 minutes both ways. I declined but told her I could schedule the meeting for before or after work so that she wouldn't miss any work...even offered to come in on a Saturday or Sunday.
She didn't want to do that but said we could meet at 12:30 today at my office. At 1:00 she was still a no-show. I called her at 1:05 on her cell phone and she said she was lost. I asked if we should reschedule so she wouldn't be hurt at work. "No," she said, "I told them I'm taking a long lunch."
She hadn't thought to call me to tell me she'd be late.
She said she was on MoPac (the highway on which I office) going over the big metal bridge over the lake. Well, there is no big metal bridge over the lake on MoPac. I explained she was on the wrong highway and told her how to get to MoPac and then instructed her to call the receptionist to talk her in.
She finally showed at 1:20 and we had our meeting.
While too many doctors have made me wait far too long in waiting rooms, if their patients pay nothing, they'll get the same treatment I got today.
Fire-alarm pulling?
LATimes:
Ketchum could remember only one out-of-character incident.
"Someone pulled the fire alarm next to my door," she said. "We all were told there is an invisible dye that squirts onto your hand when you pull the alarm and you're not going to be able to hide. And Sarah looked at her hands, and said, 'Oh my God, look!' And she went and confessed."
Monday, October 20, 2008
Questions
(1) Why should anyone believe Barry on taxes when he's broken the only promise he's had a chance to break (public financing)? (2) Do you really believe that if Pelosi and Reid pass a tax bill that differs from what Barry is now promising that he will veto it?
Scooter = Mr. Potter
That is what my receptionist jokingly called me last Thursday as I walked out of the office to oversee an eviction. For those not familiar, it was a reference to the bad guy in It's a Wonderful Life. Today I was Mr. Potter as I watched over an eviction of the B&B owner. The owner was substantially behind in rent but that did not make today any easier. Sometimes I really hate my job. An hour ago I was looking for the evictee's cat. I didn't find the kitty.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Re: Your party is evil
I've heard Michael say something like this and I agree, "Those like me on the right think those on the left are sincere and misguided." He may have even posted on the subject but I'm too lazy to search. His context comes from his own left-leaning positions of his younger days.
Having been a rightie since before I even knew what that meant, I don't have that context but I have many left-leaning friends.
But for a few nutjobs [and acknowledging we have those, too] I've never, ever thought they were evil.
Having been a rightie since before I even knew what that meant, I don't have that context but I have many left-leaning friends.
But for a few nutjobs [and acknowledging we have those, too] I've never, ever thought they were evil.
I know, I know, he's just a character in a novel
But Bob Lee Swagger took out several bad guys in Night of Thunder with Scooter's favorite rifle round--the 6.8 mm Remington SPC.
Colin Powell
says that making hay out of Obama's connection to Ayers is "demagoguery". (He also did a beautiful job of describing the narrowness that he sees in the Republican party these days.)
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