Investing in Superdelegates (Not that they can be bought)

Lots of the Superdelegates are elected officials who benefit from campaign contributions. Obama and Clinton each have donated, through their PACs, to many Supers. Capital Eye has compared PAC contribution lists with Super endorsements lists (and drawn conclusions 1 and 2 below). I'm shocked, shocked to learned there are significant correlations. But what's really interesting is how much more effectively Obama has been playing the game. I give him props.

1. Obama invested a lot more in Supers than Clinton did: $710,926 vs. $236,080 (2005-2008)

2. Obama is getting a higher return on investment than Clinton is: 85% vs. 75% amongst Supers. (More specifically, “[I]n cases where Obama had made a contribution since 2005 but Clinton had given the superdelegate nothing, Obama got the Supers' support 85 percent of the time. And Clinton got the support of 75 percent of Supers who got money from her but not from Obama.")

3. Hillary has liquidated her assets, but Obama still has more to cash in. Because Capital Eye was generous enough to publish a table of their underlying data, we can play with it. I notice that of those Supers who have not yet declared allegiance, there are 34 Supers who have received contributions from Obama while getting $0 from Clinton. There are only 3 Supers who received contributions from Clinton while getting $0 from Obama. In addition, there are 7 who have received more cash from Obama than Clinton, while there is only 1 who has received more cash from Clinton than from Obama. If we project where these Supers will go based on past ROI, Obama can expect to collect 29+ from these folks, while Clinton can expect 3 or 4.

We've heard how Clinton has picked the “low-hanging” fruit amongst Supers; the Capital Eye table is a crystal clear picture of the fruit tree. Of course, there are other fruit trees in the orchard. There's the you-pardoned-my-friend tree, the night-in-the-Lincoln-bedroom tree, the you-voted-for-earmark-for-my-state tree...

But I'm not actually that cynical about what's going to happen with the Supers. I do believe that Obama will win the pledged vote and the popular vote and the most states and the Supers will validate the will of the voters. Big/small states won't matter. There. I'm on record. I'll keep a sandwich at the ready.